Finlandization Of Ukraine - The crisis in Ukraine has left desperate officials in Western capitals looking for a diplomatic way to fend off Russian aggression. On his way to a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron was asked about a possible solution: "Finlandization," a reference to Finland's officially neutral status during the Cold War. Macron acknowledged it was "a model on the table" but insisted diplomats would have to come up with something new. The news also sparked outrage in Ukraine and Finland, where the experience is not fondly remembered. How does "Finlandization" work in practice and how can a similar situation be applied to Ukraine?
As Europe hardened into rival blocs led by the US and the Soviet Union at the dawn of the Cold War, Finland acquired a unique position. Although he resisted a full-scale Soviet invasion during World War II, he was forced to depopulate the area, pay reparations, and legalize the Communist Party of Finland. In the immediate postwar period, the country had few ties to the West and was under threat from its giant neighbor to the east. A treaty signed with the Soviet Union in 1948 became the basis of "Finlandization". Finland would retain its sovereignty and remain neutral in the rivalry between the superpowers, not joining either NATO or the Warsaw Pact.
Finlandization Of Ukraine
In practice, the price of Finnish independence was that the Soviet Union would exert significant influence over the country's politics. Finland's president, Urho Kekkonen, made friendship with the Soviet Union a cornerstone of his tenure for most of the Cold War and has turned his supposedly indispensable role in securing ties with the Kremlin into his political advantage. He routinely exceeded his constitutional authority, established corrupt personal networks, and refused to appoint officials to important positions that were not acceptable to the Soviet leadership. The main conservative party, the National Alliance, was excluded from coalition governments, despite winning the second or third number of parliamentary seats in five elections between 1966 and 1987. The Finnish media regularly self-censored when they were seen as critical of the soviets Federation Tammi, a publisher, bowed to pressure in 1974 and did not publish a Finnish translation of "The Gulag Archipelago," a novel by Alexander Solzhenitsyn, a prominent Soviet dissident, even though the book was published in Finland a few years later.
What Is The Option Of Finlandization Of Ukraine
Nor did neutrality free Finland from Soviet influence in its foreign policy. To appease the Soviet Union after signing an agreement with the European Economic Community in 1972, Finland, the forerunner of the European Union, also joined the Soviet-led Comcon bloc in 1973 as an observer. Soviet domestic or foreign policy, including during Soviet military intervention in Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, and Afghanistan in 1979.
Despite the obstacles, Finland flourished. It maintained a strong defense capability and a liberal democracy was maintained. With the end of the Cold War, it could pursue a truly independent foreign policy. In 1994 it joined NATO's Partnership for Peace, a non-full member defense cooperation program, and in 1995 it became a member of the European Union. Today, Russia's aggressive stance in Ukraine has Finnish leaders considering further engagement with the West. In December 2021, it decided to buy the US-built F-35 as its next fighter, while Finnish President Sauli Niinisto reiterated that Finland was free to choose its military alignment, including the option to join- is in NATO.
For Ukrainians worried about their fate, "Finlandization" does not look attractive. The main objective of Mr. Putin is that Ukraine, like Finland before it, never joins NATO. His other demands would limit Ukraine's sovereignty, something Macron and other Western leaders say is a red line. The implementation of the Minsk Protocol, which called for Ukraine to decentralize power in rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine, could give Moscow a hand in Ukrainian politics directly through its proxy. Although Ukraine continues to receive significant diplomatic and material support from the West, in other respects its position is weaker than that of Finland at the start of the Cold War. Its economy and politics are in tatters, and Russian forces and their proxies have already occupied Ukrainian territory in Crimea and Donbass. "Finlandization" might allow Ukraine to avoid invasion, but the country would be firmly in Moscow's hands.
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